Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
